Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
